ECONOMIC PULSE
An update on the local and national economy
Posted September 2006
Snohomish County - is this an opportunity for retailers?
It is, if predictions for a growing population, increased employment and higher personal income come to pass. Dick Conway of Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc. predicts that over the next few years Snohomish County will be the fastest-growing county in the Puget Sound region. It is also one of the fastest-growing in the state.
Conway pointed to new residents and additional hiring at Boeing as drivers for the expansion. He expected the growth rate for 2007 through 2010 will moderate to more sustainable levels than those posted in 2005 and 2006.
Boeing not only has 26,500 workers in Snohomish County, but it indirectly supports at least that many - all told, Boeing accounts for about 20 percent of the county's work force, Conway said.
In addition, more than four in 10 Snohomish County workers commute to work in King County. This brings in a net of $4.7 billion per year, making commuters a larger economic force than Boeing, according to Conway. Another major employer in the county is the U.S. Navy in Everett. Naval employment is expected to remain stable.
Population is predicted to grow from 671,200 in 2006 to 733,500 in 2010 - an increase of 9.3 percent (or an average of 1.9 percent per year). Population growth will add 6,000 to 8,000 new households to the county each year.
Employment is predicted to grow from 240,000 in 2006 to 270,400 in 2010 - an increase of 12.7 percent (or an average of 2.5 percent per year). High-paying aerospace employment leads the way, and is predicted to grow from 26,500 in 2006 to 35,300 in 2010 - an increase of 33.1 percent (or an average of 6.6 percent per year).
Per capita personal income is predicted to grow from $36,900 in 2006 to $44,500 in 2010 - an increase of 20.6 percent (or an average of 4.1 percent per year). Want to see a really big number? Total up the per capita income and you get total personal income in the county of $21.9 billion in 2006 and $23 billion in 2007. That's 4 percent growth each year.
In its long-range plan, Snohomish County proposes to cluster growth in areas that already have infrastructure rather than allowing sprawl in rural areas. Some developers have said that growth projections will require developing on new land, while environmental groups are pushing to keep growth contained near existing communities and out of rural habitats.
So, where is additional retail needed? At this time it appears that Snohomish County has about the right amount of retail to serve its current population - its "location quotient" matches the state's. Conway explained that the quotient compares retail employment with total employment. Because of the fast pace of growth in Snohomish County, more retail will be needed to keep pace with growth. Since the areas south of Everett are getting built out, he indicated that the greatest potential for additional retail may be north of Everett.
Sources: Copyright 2006 Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc. "Puget Sound Economic Forecaster" and economicforecaster.com.
)
|
Snohomish County population prediction Click for larger version |
)
|
Snohomish County employment prediction Click for larger version |
)
|
Snohomish County personal income prediction Click for larger version |
)
|
Snohomish County aerospace business employment prediction Click for larger version |
SEATTLE AREA ECONOMIC TRENDS
| U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS | Q2-06 |
Q1-06 |
Q2-05 |
|
| U.S. GDP (billions) | $11,471.0 | $11,376.3 | $11,089.2 | |
| % Change | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | |
| Inflation (CPI) U.S. | 2.005 | 1.993 | 1.940 | |
| PUGET SOUND ECONOMIC INDICATORS | Q2-06 |
Q1-06 |
Q2-05 | |
| Inflation (CPI) (Seattle-Bellevue-Everett) | 2.048 | 2.036 | 2.006 | |
| EMPLOYMENT | 1,785,000 | 1,768,200 | 1,714,200 | |
| - | Government | 283,100 |
282,100 |
280,000 |
| - | Wholesale & Retail Trade | 275,200 | 272,500 | 265,600 |
| - | Professional & Business Services | 236,000 | 232,700 | 221,200 |
| - | Information ( incl. Software Publishers) | 81,500 |
80,900 |
79,500 |
| - | Aerospace | 71,900 |
70,700 |
64,400 |
| Unemployment Rate (Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue) | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | |
Airport Passengers (Sea-Tac) |
7,830,500 | 6,444,900 | 7,522,500 | |
Housing Permits |
25,400 | 26,500 | 24,800 | |
Home & Condo Sales |
21,003 | 15,725 | 22,506 | |
| Median Home Price |
$338,200 | $315,700 | $292,100 | |
| U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates | 6.6% |
6.2% |
5.7% |
|
TAXABLE RETAIL SALES (King, Pierce, Snohomish and Kitsap counties) |
Q2-06 |
Q1-06 |
Q2-05 |
|
| Total Taxable Retail Sales | $68,955,000 | $67,814,000 | $63,237,000 | |
| Goods: | ||||
| - | Motor Vehicles & Parts | $13,795,000 | $13,557,000 | $12,720,000 |
| - | Food & Beverage | $7,021,000 | $6,938,000 | $6,781,000 |
| - | General Merchandise | $7,031,000 | $6,900,000 | $6,579,000 |
| - | Gasoline Stations | $4,942,000 | $4,933,000 | $4,680,000 |
| - | Building Materials & Garden Supplies | $4,586,000 | $4,580,000 | $4,228,000 |
| - | Furniture & Electronics | $3,202,000 | $3,139,000 | $2,970,000 |
| - | Apparel & Accessories | $2,830,000 | $2,783,000 | $2,692,000 |
| Services: | ||||
| - | Food Services & Drinking Establishments | $5,347,000 | $5,249,000 | $5,034,000 |
Bases: Most references are to the three county area of King, Snohomish and Island counties. Exceptions are noted.
Sources and Data Notes: Unless otherwise noted, source is Copyright Conway Pedersen Economics, Inc., Seattle, WA "The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster"
Sea-Tac International Airport Traffic and Operations Summary.
Housing permits are for residential, privately owned units.
Home Sales data is King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties. Source: Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
Taxable Retail Sales — only major categories listed.